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Friday, November 19, 2021

Law of unintended consequences - Delhi air pollution

Air pollution due to paddy stubble burning in North India in October-November envelopes Delhi in a thick blanket of smog. It has several contributors. 

Livemint has an article discussing the issue. The article has a good example of how well-intended policy actions can rebound,

In 2009, in a bid to save its rapidly declining groundwater levels, the Punjab government made a law that barred farmers from planting paddy before the dates notified in late May or early June. This was done to time plantings to the arrival of the annual monsoon. This enforced delay in planting pushed the date of harvest to November, which meant farmers had to quickly clear their fields to plant wheat. A delay means lower yields. Due to this short window— of just two weeks between the two crops—farmers took to burning the crop residue in larger numbers. The delay in harvest also meant that the stubble is burnt just when the wind direction changes in late October-mid November, which carries the smoke all over the northern Gangetic plains.

And also this,

“After the introduction of the subsidy, the cost of machines used to manage stubble has increased significantly (a super-seeder now costs ₹2,40,000, compared to ₹1,80,000 a year back)," said Ravneet Brar, a farmer from Muktsar, Punjab, and spokesperson of Bhartiya Kisan Union, Kadian... Under the central scheme of agri-mechanization for managing crop residues, over ₹2,200 crore has been spent in the past four years. The subsidies range between 50-80% for the purchase of new machines.

As to the problem itself, I don't think there are any innovative or unknown solutions to the problem of smog and air pollution in Delhi in the winter months. It requires deploying the well known set of actions, co-ordinating among various implementation partners, and implementing them with high fidelity in a focussed manner. Searching for innovations when faced with such problems is a human failing though it'll do little to solve the problem. 

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