Weekend reading links

1. Indian universities have come to dominate the global rankings for research paper retractions, following complaints of plagiarism, fake peer reviews, and other misdemeanours. According to the Retraction Watch database, India recorded 887 research paper retractions in 2025, form 21% of all retractions (second to China with 41%) despite contributing just 5% of all publications, and occupying six of the world's top 10 universities for retractions. 

2. Stunning statistic about the Algerian demographic dominance of the Les Blues, the French national soccer team.

Only two of France’s 26 players are of non-immigrant ancestry — 22 of them have African roots. Some, such as Mbappé, are deeply connected to their country of origin.

And this dynamic of reverse migration and migrant domination elsewhere.

Of England’s 26 players, eight have Caribbean forebears, 10 African, and 20 who were eligible to represent at least one other country because of their family heritage or birthplace. Belgium has players who trace their lineage to its former colonies — Congo, Burundi and Mali. The Portugal team has those of Cape Verdean, Angolan, and Guinean lineage. Those surplus to their requirements — players of African descent born and raised in Europe — in turn, populate most of the African teams. Ten of the 11 Senegalese players in the starting lineup against France in the opening game were born in France... Six of the players in the US national team are of Afro-Caribbean heritage... There are those from Nigeria, Ghana, and Jamaica. Three are from Hispanic backgrounds — Christian Roldan (Guatemala), Ricardo Pepi (Mexican-American) and Jesús Ferreira (Colombian-American). As many are from Europe, and three others have dual nationalities... For Australia's Socceroos, four players were born in refugee camps. The players represent 15 ethnic backgrounds and include a Malaysian with Sri Lankan roots. Eighteen other players have direct immigrant or refugee heritage. To contextualise, only one Black player (Sam Morris) and another of Caribbean descent (Andrew Symonds) have represented Australia in cricket.

This is a brilliant article by Sandip G about the magnificent quartet in the French team - Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Desire Doue. 

3. The US military learns from Iran.

The US has, similarly, begun to build its production of drones. It used the Lucas, a one-way attack drone reverse-engineered by start-up SpektreWorks from an Iranian Shahed-136, for the first time in combat in February. The Pentagon is looking to begin mass-producing them, and has requested to triple its spending on drones and related technologies to over $74bn next year.

4. Shenzhen, with 400,000 taxi drivers licensed to provide services in 26 platforms, will permit robotaxis from July 1. The new rules will allow the Shenzhen government to promote the “orderly development” of robotaxi tests, demonstrations and commercial pilots either in select zones or citywide. 

5. Friedrich Merz's landmark pension reforms

Under proposals agreed by a bipartisan commission, a compulsory initial contribution of 0.5 per cent of employees’ pre-tax income, rising to 2 per cent by 2031, will go into a Swedish-style public pension fund managed centrally and invested in capital markets. Contributions are split 50/50 between employees and employers. The statutory minimum retirement age of 67 is set to rise in line with life expectancy; rights to early retirement for people with 45 years of contributions will be restricted.

Such measures have become vital to reduce the deficits of Germany’s unsustainable pay-as-you-go system. Some 16.5mn baby boomers will retire by 2036 with only 12.5mn new workers joining the workforce, according to some estimates. The government spent about a quarter of the total federal budget on plugging gaps in the system in 2024; economists say that could double to 50 per cent in two decades.

Linking the retirement age to life expectancy is projected to mean only a gradual increase — to 67.5 by 2041 and 70 by 2091. But economists say this is the only sound way to stabilise the system without spiralling payroll taxes or huge federal subsidies. Narrowing early retirement rights will address a drain of experienced workers amid acute skills shortages.

6. Important graphic that highlights the extent of renminbi depreciation since the beginning of 2022 and the surge in surplus.

7. China expands export restrictions on dual-use items against Japanese companies in the latest instance of weaponisation of its manufacturing dominance. 

The companies added to the export control list include subsidiaries of Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The restrictions will also apply to several Japanese government research organisations including the National Institute for Defense Studies. Chinese exporters are banned from selling to the entities on the restricted list, and foreign organisations or individuals are also prohibited from selling dual-use items that were built or originated in China. China last expanded the list to 40 companies in February. In parallel with the expanded export control list, China’s commerce ministry on Monday put 20 Japanese companies and organisations on its watchlist, meaning they will get closer scrutiny in any matters relating to potential dual-use technologies. The list includes subsidiaries of Fujitsu, Mitsui E&S, Hitachi, Komatsu and Terra Drone. Beijing’s targeting of Japanese companies is the latest example of China’s weaponisation of trade in recent years. The EU Chamber of Commerce in China in April has found that Beijing has nearly tripled its use of export controls in the past five years. While some instances have been in response to western measures, the researchers noted that Beijing’s controls have also frequently targeted trade chokepoints.

8. GST balance sheet.

Though average GST collections in absolute terms are almost 90 per cent higher than those in the pre-GST period, other parameters tell the real story. The average growth rate in tax collections and the tax-GDP ratio are lower under the GST regime compared to the pre-GST era. Collections were further marred by GST cuts starting September 22, 2025.

9. India's labour market challenge.

With high-skilled IT services under pressure, a financial sector with limited capacity to create low and medium skilled jobs and manufacturing struggling to gain traction, the one area where jobs are being created is low-end services. Delivery riders for Zepto, which has just filed its papers for an IPO, have gone up from 49,278 in 2024 to 2.21 lakh in 2026 — more than a four-fold increase. Zomato and Blinkit have almost doubled to 10 lakh riders in two years. Swiggy now has 6.1 lakh riders, while Uber, at 14 lakh active drivers, outstrips Indian Railways. The gig economy is emerging as an urban employment sink.

10. The Uniqlo-Toray partnership that underpins Fast Retailing's spectacular growth. 

In April 2000, Uniqlo founder Yanai paid a visit to the offices of Toray, a Tokyo-based chemicals and materials conglomerate he had read about in a magazine. It marked the start of a strategic collaboration that provided Uniqlo with arguably its most important advantage over rivals: access to high-tech, specialised fabrics. After testing 10,000 prototypes, Toray invented a material combining four types of synthetic yarn that absorbs moisture from the body and converts it to heat. Uniqlo branded it Heattech, and since 2003 has sold 1.5bn garments made from or containing it. Toray also helped develop the fabrics behind AIRism, used as a breathable base layer, and the Ultra Light Down ranges of packable jackets insulated with bird plumage... control over fibre shape and fineness, dubbed nanodesign, has helped to make highly water-repellent and durable $50 lightweight parkas, creating a far cheaper alternative to specialist outdoor brands such as Patagonia. The two sides are entering a fifth phase of collaboration that aims to combine synthetic fabrics with natural ones, such as introducing cashmere into Heattech products to make them softer. Okawa believes few other retailers have such deep relationships with their key suppliers.

11. Good FT long read about the Jamie Dimon succession struggle at JPMorgan. The things that stand out are the following: 

One, the appointment of someone to the top position in any organisation, public or private, is bound to be opaque and involve considerable discretion. The only disqualification would be the egregiously ineligible. For any others, there will always be ways to spin it as a fair process. This holds with greater effect as the stakes go up. 

Two, in the succession struggle, dominated as they are by a multiplicity of considerations, among those eligible or qualified, it is rare that the most professionally competent will emerge as the successor. 

Three strong leaders will always delay succession, and even when they choose to retire, will seek to retain enough levers to influence the decisions of their successors. Most often, it is about decisions involving the promotion of the interests of those in the organisation closest to them, their pet projects or initiatives, broader organisational strategic shifts, etc.

Weekend reading links

1. PE firms sitting on $4 trillion of unsold assets, on investments largely made between 2020 and 2022 when rates were slashed to zero, are finding creative ways to offload them. Sample this

Blackstone is marketing a so-called collateralised fund obligation that will bundle more than $2bn of stakes in leveraged buyout funds into bonds to sell to investors and insurers, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal would provide an infusion of cash to investors in a Blackstone Strategic Partners fund, the firm’s unit that invests in other private equity groups’ funds. It is unclear if Blackstone will ultimately go ahead with the securitisation or seek to sell the stakes in a secondary transaction, one person briefed on the matter said... The vehicles, which are sliced and diced to give investors exposure to different levels of risk and return, have boomed. Issuance of CFOs soared to a record of $25.9bn last year from a modest $4.8bn in 2021, according to credit rating agency KBRA.

2. This is a brilliant articulation of the problem with articulating something purely in terms of absolute numbers and aggregates.

In his novel Hard Times, Charles Dickens described a girl called Sissy, who was having a terrible time in her lessons. Her schoolmaster told her to imagine that her schoolroom was a nation in possession of “fifty millions of money”. Wouldn’t that mean it was a prosperous and thriving state? “I said I didn’t know,” she relayed afterwards to a friend. “I thought I couldn’t know whether it was a prosperous nation or not, and whether I was in a thriving state or not, unless I knew who had got the money, and whether any of it was mine. But that had nothing to do with it. It was not in the figures at all.”

3. Interesting story about how old companies are reinventing themselves to profit from the AI-boom.

AI servers must be more tightly linked together, increasing the need for advanced cabling and optics. Shares in Corning, the 175-year-old inventor of Pyrex glass that also supplies screens for Apple’s iPhones, have increased by more than 270 per cent in the past year after it signed deals with Meta and Nvidia to supply optical fibre cabling to AI data centres. The vast amounts of electricity needed for AI training are also fuelling demand for specialised power management, high-voltage electronics and cooling technologies. This has led to big interest in traditional suppliers of electrical equipment, typically deployed in residential and industrial projects. Eaton, an Ohio-based power management company, received 240 per cent more data centre orders in Q1 this year...

 

French electrical equipment maker Legrand has doubled its revenues this decade with half of the growth coming from data centres, which now make up more than a quarter of its turnover. Air conditioning and liquid cooling — using water to stop chips from overheating — are in demand too. Shares in AC maker Comfort Systems USA have shot up 260 per cent over the past year, while Schneider Electric bought a stake in data centre liquid cooling specialist Motivair for $850mn last year. Utilities are rushing to supply AI companies with power — including Spain’s Iberdrola, a leading supplier of power contracts to tech groups in Europe, according to Pexapark data, and Entergy in the US, whose share price hit a record high after a $10bn deal with Meta... Several generator and engine companies have also pivoted to supplying data centres, including Caterpillar, Boeing supplier Howmet Aerospace, Finnish ship engine maker Wärtsilä and Baker Hughes, which formerly focused on oilfield services.

4. China demographics facts of the week.

This year’s cohort of gaokao-takers were mostly born in 2008, a year of 16.1m births. By 2025 births had more than halved, to just 7.9m. The demographic cliff is already visible in nurseries, which saw pupil numbers plummet from 46m to 32m between 2022 and 2025. Numbers in primary schools have also started to thin. Inevitably, over time, secondary schools and then colleges will follow.

And technology adoption

A survey of 322,000 students last year by the China National Academy of Educational Sciences, a state-affiliated think-tank, found that 85.6% of them had already tried using AI to complete their homework. On popular apps such as Zuoyebang (“Homework Help”) and Yuanfudao (“Ape Tutoring”), pupils snap photos of questions and ai walks them through the solutions. (Teachers are using similar technologies to help mark homework.)

5. Public moods on the role of government in the UK - 70% support nationalising energy and 82% water.

Rail subsidies have been rising, £12bn in operational support in 2024-25, up in real terms from £2bn in 2000-01. 

6. Indian economy facts of the week.

The World Trade Organization data show that for non-agricultural goods, the share of tariff lines in the category 10-15 per cent increased sharply from 1.4 per cent to 33.5 per cent between 2014 and 2024 and for the tariff category 15-25 per cent from 1.7 per cent to 14.9 per cent, while the share of tariff lines in the category 0-10 per cent fell steeply from 90.5 per cent to 42.5 per cent over the same period.

7. From Thomas Astbridge's book on the Black Death 

In its most intense phase, from 1347 to 1353, the Black Death killed more than 100mn people, or about half the population in the areas infected, Asbridge estimates. This makes it more lethal than two other great pandemics — the 6th-century Plague of Justinian in the Mediterranean and the pestilence that swept across Asia from the mid-19th century until the aftermath of the second world war — and far worse than Covid-19 in our times... Asbridge demonstrates that the Black Death was probably more devastating in cities such as Cairo and Damascus than in, say, Constantinople or Florence. In Cairo, a metropolis of 500,000 people, almost 10 times larger than London’s population, perhaps 250,000 died, Asbridge suggests.

8. On the role of luck in football tournaments.

According to one study of historical matches, the chances of the team with the worse record winning was 45 per cent in football, compared with just 36 per cent in America’s National Football League. (Yes, this pep talk has statistics. Bite me.) The knockout structure raises the role of chance, as just one dodgy penalty can crash a team out of the competition. According to numbers crunched by James Tozer of Prospect, a sports analytics company, betting odds gave the top four teams in the most recent Premier League a combined 89 per cent chance of winning (after adjusting for bookies’ ability to take advantage of fans’ optimism that their team would win). In the World Cup an upset is more likely, as that figure is only 48 per cent.

9. Aldi effect, as the discount grocery retailer seeks to expand aggressively, as it envisages 4000 stores at an investment of $9 billion in a US market where consumers are facing higher prices due to persistent inflation.

Credit card data analysed by the bank found that when an Aldi store opened, it shaved an average of one percentage point off annual sales from competitors within a 10-mile radius... Aldi prospered in postwar Germany under brothers Karl and Theo Albrecht before a disagreement led to a split in the 1960s. One offshoot, Aldi Süd, oversees Aldi’s US business after opening the first store in Iowa in 1976. The other, Aldi Nord, owns the quirky US grocer Trader Joe’s. The discounter’s stores are austere places with only about six staff on duty. They are designed for maximum efficiency: groceries are shelved without leaving their cardboard shipping trays and oversized bar codes are printed on packing so checkout operators can scan at pace. Customers must deposit a coin to obtain a shopping trolley, which is refunded if they return it. Operating cost savings fund the chain’s low prices... Aldi’s compact stores, which stock only about 2,000 product lines, are often located near competitors such as Walmart, whose large-format stores carry about 120,000 products, including low-priced groceries.

10. Andhra Pradesh shrimp production facts.

India exports approximately 8 lakh tonnes of shrimp a year, with Andhra Pradesh accounting for over 60 percent of production. The state accounts for 80 percent of the country’s shrimp exports and 34 percent of marine exports, valued at around Rs 21,246 crore annually. The state has 2.5 lakh aqua farmer families, of which 2 lakh are small and medium farmers. Another 30 lakh people depend on allied sectors. According to the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India exported a record 17,81,602 MT of seafood worth US$ 7.38 billion (Rs 60,523.89 crore) in 2023-24, of which frozen shrimp alone accounted for 92 percent — a significant share from Andhra Pradesh.

11. India's PPP pioneers

GVK’s 216-megawatt (Mw) Jegurupadu plant became an early proof-of-concept under a power purchase agreement. IL&FS built a 12-km toll road between Rau and Pithampur in Madhya Pradesh, marking India’s first private toll concession.

12. This is a true success story for the Indian economy.

Between 2020 and 2026 the number of Indian retail investors rose from around 40m to 130m.

Weekend reading links

1. Samsung's spectacular turnaround, from being in the doldrums as late as in 2024.

This month its market value, which has soared by 400% in the past year, hit $1trn for the first time, propelled by furious spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure. In the first quarter of 2026 its operating profit rose to 57trn won ($38bn), more than eight times as much as a year before. Analysts expect profits to keep rising at a blistering pace, thanks in particular to the seemingly insatiable demand for its advanced memory chips... Semiconductors accounted for 61% of sales and 94% of operating profits in the first quarter. It is one of just three firms capable of making at scale the memory chips needed for ai, alongside SK Hynix, a South Korean rival, and Micron, an American one. The number of memory chips Samsung sold in the first quarter was up by about 20% on the preceding three months, but the average selling price rose by 90%.

2. The Economist argues that the calm in global oil markets despite a supply shock of some 14 mb per day can be traced to the 4 mbpd of increased exports by the US and the 4.5 mbpd of reduction in Chinese imports, coupled with rationing across countries. 

3. As the rise of AI threatens white-collar jobs and increases the returns to capital, The Economist proposes some measures to redistribute the gains. 

If employment falls, income that once went to workers is likely to show up as high profits in AI firms, chipmakers, data centres or elsewhere in the supply chain. Clever tax reforms, such as levies on corporate profits that are above a normal return on capital, on land and on natural resources, could capture these rents. The case for inheritance taxes to prevent the entrenchment of a capital-owning elite looks even stronger than before. At the same time governments could help workers adjust. Public wage-insurance, which smooths out falls in income after job losses, can help workers find better opportunities (and so can eventually pay for itself). Denmark’s active labour-market policies, in which the state helps people find and train for new occupations, have been proved to cut spells in unemployment... 

A last set of radical ideas, such as the partial nationalisation of ai firms. This week a South Korean presidential adviser floated a citizens’ “dividend” from AI businesses, sending the local stockmarket down by 5%, before backtracking. In America politicians murmur about giving citizens shares in AI companies via “Trump accounts”. In economic terms there is little difference between a well-designed tax system and a government stake in the private sector—and countries without AI giants will have to rely on taxes rather than seizing shares in foreign companies. But America may find that some public ownership is the best way to make the social upside from the technology transparent.

4. The changing face of Reliance Industries.

5. America's remarkable productivity growth miracle since the pandemic (it predates the AI boom).

Now with AI coming of age, the productivity spurt is likely to continue. 

6. Egypt may well be the leader in land monetisation to promote economic growth in any substantial form.  (HT: Adam Tooze)

Since 2015, Egypt has increasingly contributed public land as equity, while foreign investors provide capital, development expertise, and project execution. Once a project is completed, revenues are shared according to pre-agreed division... in 2023, Egypt appointed the bank’s International Finance Corporation as its advisor for the asset monetization program, leveraging its experience supporting emerging markets. While land monetization has been tried elsewhere, Egypt’s projects are among the largest... For the Ras el-Hekma development on the country’s North Coast, Egypt contributed approximately 40,600 acres of state-owned land along the Mediterranean. The UAE (via its ADQ sovereign wealth fund) committed roughly $35 billion, the largest foreign direct investment in Egyptian history. Egypt received immediate foreign currency inflowsfor the land, a 35 percent stake in the project, and long-term profit participation... A similar project, also on the North Coast, is Alam el-Aroum/Samla near Marsa Matrouh. The Qatar Investment Authority-linked Qatari Diar is investing almost $30 billion, which includes a $3.5 billion upfront land payment for some 20 million square meters and $26 billion in development investments. A revenue share for Egypt (15 percent after cost recovery) is part of the deal.

Another arrangement is in place for Egypt’s New Administrative Capital (NAC). About thirty miles east of Cairo, the NAC is designed as the government seat and a commercial hub; reports estimate total development costs of up to $58 billion, including infrastructure and governmental, commercial, and residential districts. Foreign direct investment plays a role in specific sub‑components like the Central Business District (CBD) and future free-trade‑zone ventures. Chinese banks led by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provided 85 percent of funding for twenty towers in the CBD. The China State Construction Engineering Corporation developed the CBD; Gulf investors (such as the United Arab Emirates’ DP World) developed commercial parcels. The state monetized land incrementally for the NAC, and parcel sales financed development, without increasing Egypt’s debt.

All this appears very impressive. While the article paints a picture of success, it would be interesting to peel layers and scrutinise this. 

7. This is anecdotal, but tells a lot about why India lags in manufacturing.

8. Spain is undertaking an ambitious experiment in immigration.

Since 2022, Spain’s foreign-born population has surged by an annual average of 665,000, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Málaga each year. Last year the country accounted for roughly one-third of the total increase in the EU’s immigrant population, according to the Rockwool Foundation, a Berlin think-tank. Supporters say the influx has given Spain’s ageing society a much-needed burst of economic vigour. Critics call it a poorly planned strategy that is straining the country’s infrastructure and creating new social tensions... In less than a quarter of a century, Spain’s foreign-born population has gone from one in 20 residents to almost one in five, a higher proportion than even the US... Last month the Spanish government’s most contentious immigration move to date took effect — a sweeping amnesty giving at least half a million people the chance to gain residency and work permits and move out of the shadow economy... applicants must prove he was in Spain before January 1 this year and has been there for five consecutive months.

The country is already experiencing an acute housing shortage, has among the highest youth unemployment rates at over 10%, and the anti-immigrant Vox party is running third. The final outcome on the rapid rise in immigration is yet to be known. 

9. Ruchir Sharma points to an area where China trails badly behind the US, the negligible role of the renminbi as an international currency. 

With a 17 per cent share of global GDP, but only 2 per cent of central bank reserves, China is trailing 30 to 40 years behind previous superpowers at a similar stage of their ascents... Britain at its peak accounted for 40 per cent of trade, but 60 per cent of trade payments were in sterling. China by contrast has a leading 15 per cent share of global trade, but only 2 per cent of trade bills are invoiced in renminbi...

China will remain an incomplete superpower until it can match this financial firepower. For decades, it has kept its financial system more tightly sealed than any other major nation. It now ranks in the bottom fifth of nations by international investment position, which captures the level of foreign ownership in the domestic market. Foreigners own less than 5 per cent of the stocks and bonds in China, one-fifth the level in the US. Its home market is something of a local prison. Beijing has generated economic growth with heavy infusions of government money, corralled at home by capital controls. Its money supply has multiplied sixfold since 1980 to 230 per cent of GDP, among the highest in the world. This liquidity sloshes around inside the walled economy, much of it in the domestic debt market, battered lately by a property bust. Beijing is wary of easing controls, lest it unleash capital flight.

10. The US has been the biggest oil export beneficiary of the Iran war.

11. The booming market for whey protein.

Prices for whey protein isolate have soared fivefold to €28,000 a tonne since 2023, outstripping cheese and butter prices by more than four times as producers struggle to keep pace with a booming protein market... Thirty years ago whey was primarily used in animal feed or spread on farmland as a fertiliser. Whey is the liquid separated from curds during the cheesemaking process. Now, dairy groups upgrade the liquid by filtration to produce whey protein isolate, a valuable ingredient for use in sports supplements as well as groceries such as yoghurt, bread and fizzy drinks, as weight-loss drugs and the protein megatrend propel demand. “This is reshaping the economics of dairy,” said Jose Saiz, analyst at Expana, a commodity market information service. “It used to be a product with no value . . . now cheese could become the byproduct of whey production.”

12. The UK's experience of small altnets driving broadband expansion and lowering prices has come with excesses. 

Over the past decade, more than £31bn has been raised to roll out full fibre broadband across the UK, with private equity giants, including Macquarie and KKR, backing upstart challengers — or “altnets” — in the sector. Yet despite the initial investor optimism that the “altnets” could snatch customers away from industry leaders, the firms have been dogged by high build costs, lower-than-expected customer uptake and a sharp response from the country’s largest provider — BT’s Openreach — to deploy its own fibre infrastructure. The destruction of shareholder value has been brutal. At the last count, the “altnets” posted losses of more than £1.5bn in 2024, according to Enders Analysis. After accumulating some £9bn of net debt as of 2025, some companies have already been placed into administration, while others have fallen into the hands of lenders... 

Prior to the “altnet boom”, which accelerated from 2021 onwards, only 24 per cent of Britons had access to full fibre internet, according to Ofcom. Fast forward five years, that number is now more than 78 per cent, with altnets serving almost 20mn homes with full fibre, according to Assembly Research. By next year, Ofcom estimates 95 per cent of UK homes will have full fibre, putting it in line with Europe’s leaders, including Spain and Luxembourg, where regulators encouraged full fibre rollout earlier than the UK. The “altnets” have also forced BT’s telecoms infrastructure provider Openreach and Virgin Media O2 to expand their own fibre networks, giving consumers a choice between providers who are now forced to think faster and harder about how to up their game. This added competition has meant prices have fallen, with the average monthly real-terms list price of UK full fibre broadband falling from £62.38 in September 2021 to £43.46 in September 2025, a drop of 30 per cent... altnets are taking close to 1mn [customer] lines from BT annually.

13. Alan Beattie argues that EU has initiatied several trade measures against China, though their implementation has been weak, primarily due to internal opposition within the bloc. 

One of the recent instruments with a bit more bite is the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), launched in 2023 and designed to level the playing field against state-backed Chinese companies bidding for contracts or producing and selling in the EU. It’s notable that it gives a lot of investigatory and decision-making powers to the Commission, specifically to the internal market and competition directorates, which are used to having autonomous powers. By starting investigations into their operations, the FSR has managed to get some Chinese companies to pull out of public procurement bids. But when the EU tries to use its internal market powers to investigate supposedly subsidised Chinese businesses trading in the single market, it becomes clear just how strongly Beijing is willing to resist. Last week, in an investigation dating to 2024 into the Chinese cargo scanner company Nuctech, Beijing cited new supply chain security laws to forbid Chinese companies to comply with requests for information, saying Brussels’ extraterritorial reach was illegitimate.

14. Arvind Subramanian and Devesh Kapur on the contrasting tales of India and China in monetisation of lands by urban local bodies. 

China’s land revenues increased from less than 1 per cent of GDP to more than 10 per cent at its peak. In contrast, India’s revenues have stagnated at about 1 per cent of GDP through the entire growth phase. Put differently, the Chinese government’s collections from land revenue for every urban resident that was available for spending were about 15 times more than India’s in 1999; at its peak in 2020, this multiple increased to 225.

15. As AI capex surges, there are growing doubts about whether it will generate the returns required to justify it.

For each of these hyperscalers, I collected the consensus estimates of analysts for the capital expenditures and revenues between 2025 and 2030. In these five years, capital investments are expected to rise by 20 per cent a year, a growth rate never seen before in this industry. Meanwhile, revenues are expected to grow 15 per cent annually. If we make the heroic assumption that there are no costs, then the additional revenue is the profit these companies are expected to make from their additional investments in AI data centres. Yet, even under these extremely optimistic assumptions, I calculate the implied return on investment is highly negative for all of them except Amazon. These numbers show that if the hyperscalers continue on the current trajectory, the AI boom will become a story of one of the largest destructions of shareholder value in history... If the hyperscalers want to generate, say, a 10 per cent return on investment, they would have to find an additional $2tn to $5tn in revenue a year. A tall order for a group of companies that currently generates revenues of just $1.5tn per year.

See this comparison with the technology, media and telecom (TMT) bubbles of the late nineties.

In 2025, US businesses invested almost $1.5tn in IT equipment and software. At the peak of the TMT bubble, it was $466bn or $829bn when adjusted for inflation. Indeed, the US economy is growing solely because of the tech boom. I calculate that over the past four quarters, 93 per cent of US GDP growth was explained by tech investments. Even at the peak of the TMT bubble, it barely reached 60 per cent.

16. Tim Harford points to evidence that retailers jack up prices in response to shocks much faster than they bring prices down, and that retailers make their money not so much during the upcycle than in the downward phase.

Johannes Brinkmann and Nikhil Datta of the University of Warwick recently published an analysis of the impact on petrol and diesel prices of the oil price shock in 2022, following Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine. They found that in the UK, retailer margins compressed: the wholesale price of diesel rose by 39 pence per litre, while retail prices only rose 16 pence. This is the opposite behaviour to that predicted by the greedflation hypothesis. A natural explanation of this price compression is that retailers feel under more intense scrutiny when prices are rising. Brinkmann and Datta show that searches on the petrolprices.com website increased dramatically when prices did — and that areas where such searches were more common were also areas where the price compression was more intense. 

Brinkmann and Datta’s analysis is merely the latest in a long tradition of research describing “rocket and feather” pricing at the pump — capturing the idea that pump prices neither faithfully track the ups and downs of the crude oil market, nor exaggerate them — instead, they shoot up like a rocket but drift down again like a feather. What is more, the quick surge upward reaches prices less lofty than one would expect; it is during the slow descent that retailers make their money. Fifteen years ago, Matthew S Lewis and Howard Marvel noted that customers spent more effort searching when prices were rising, even though there was little benefit to that search, since most retailers were charging similar prices. When pump prices were falling, there was more variability from forecourt to forecourt and a higher return to shopping around, but most customers did not bother, feeling content that prices were moving in the right direction.

17.  Preference shares are a complicated instrument.

The “preference” investors receive — usually a slightly higher dividend — comes at the expense of voting rights. Preference shares therefore arguably resemble the worst of both worlds of debt and equity. Like bonds, they do not offer any influence over the company’s decision-making. Like ordinary shares, they do not come with a contractual claim to annual payouts as dividends are subject to management discretion. Such non-voting shares have been a prominent feature in corporate Germany. Four of the 40 blue-chips in the Dax have used them to establish substantive two-tier share structures for years: Volkswagen, Porsche and BMW, the three auto giants, and glue and detergent maker Henkel. All are dominated by controlling families who hold a tight grip over the firm. 

Two further Dax companies — Merck and Fresenius — are listed as “partnerships limited by shares”, a German legal structure known by its acronym KGaA, that makes some shareholders more equal than others through other means. Deutsche Bank listed its asset management arm DWS as a KGaA in 2018, too, warning at the time that this structure could dent its valuation. Yet the club of German blue-chips with differential voting rights will soon become smaller after BMW shareholders voted to abolish preference shares last week at its annual meeting. The group’s 54.7mn preference shares, representing 10 per cent of BMW’s equity, will soon be swapped into ordinary shares with voting rights... In the US, dual-class share structures have become increasingly popular as fast-growing tech groups want to tap public markets while keeping outsized voting power for insiders. Elon Musk’s SpaceX even wants to grant its CEO 10 times as much voting power as external investors.

Sample this about SpaceX  

Elon Musk's special class of shares currently gives him control of 85 per cent of the voting power at SpaceX.

Weekend reading links

1. Private equity has outperformed public markets.

2. The Karnataka government has announced the implementation of an Alcohol-in-Beverage (AIB) based excise duty. As per this, the globally recognised practice for alcohol taxation, percentage of alcohot in a liquor brand will determine the duty levied. 

In Karnataka, alcoholic products currently fall under 16 slabs. A product was designated to a particular slab based on the Declared Price, the selling price determined by the distiller. The Additional Excise Duty levied by the government was dependent on the price per litre of the product, due to which the price of the premium liquor segment was on the higher side... Over the next four years, the government plans to abolish the slab system of excise duty collection completely. For FY 2026-27, the government will merge multiple slabs and reduce their number from 16 to eight... Currently, the duty levied for a bulk litre of say, McDowell’s – which is at the lower end, and Blue Label – which is at the higher end, is different and is based on the Declared Price. Both have 42% alcohol. Under the new system, both drinks will attract the same percentage of additional excise duty irrespective of the declared price

3. Japan lifestyle facts of the week.

The nation’s stock of 2.2mn drinks vending machines is down 23 per cent from its bubble-era peak in 1985, according to the Japan Vending System Manufacturers Association... Japan loved vending machines for their convenience despite higher prices. But three years of rising inflation has driven consumers to greater thriftiness. Well-known brands of tea and coffee can be 20 per cent cheaper in nearby convenience stores, which have also stepped up sales of freshly brewed coffee, while drugstores and supermarkets sell discount private-label brands. In 2024 just 42mn cases of drinks were sold via vending machines, down from 72mn at the 1997 peak, according to data from Inryo Souken, a Tokyo-based research institute. Vending machines also still need people to keep them stocked — and Japan has a chronic shortage of truck drivers.

4. Global crude landscape (HT: Adam Tooze)

As the war rages on, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz bites, oil prices are becoming a binding constraint on the world economy. Oil demand is highly inelastic.

Oil demand is, on average, highly inelastic in the short run because most end uses have few immediate substitutes — factory boilers rely on fuel oil, aircraft require jet fuel, and most cars still run on gasoline. Our estimate of the short‑run price elasticity of global oil demand is −0.024, implying that a roughly 40% price increase above 12‑month highs is needed to reduce total consumption by 1%. The response, however, varies materially by product. Naphtha is most sensitive because petrochemical plants can partially substitute ethane in cracking operations. Jet fuel is also relatively responsive, as airlines can cancel lightly loaded flights when fuel costs spike. By contrast, fuel oil is least elastic given its role in essential services like home heating, marine transport, and power generation.

The worst impacted by the 20% reduction in oil supply and 15% in LNG supply is Asia

Most crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are bound for Asia, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea as the principal buyers. In total, Asia takes about 11.2 mbd of crude and 1.4 mbd of refined products that transit the Strait. As a result, the immediate physical shortfall is concentrated in Asian markets, where reliance on Gulf barrels is greatest. Early signs of demand destruction are emerging in Asia as product prices surge and spot barrels become prohibitively expensive. Timing effects further reinforce this divergence. A typical voyage from the GCC to Asia takes approximately 10-15 days, while shipments to Europe require closer to 25-30 days via the Suez Canal, or even 35-45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows will hit Asian markets earlier and more acutely, whereas Atlantic basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI will remain cushioned for longer by inventory overhangs and slower supply adjustments.

India's dependence on Strait of Hormuz is especially acute.

Almost 50 per cent of the LPG and 30 per cent of the natural gas that India consumes comes from the Strait of Hormuz.

5. Gideon Rachman writes that Iran may have achieved a major strategic leverage going forward by demonstrating the chokehold that any restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz can have on the world economy. 

The strait’s closure creates both an immediate crisis and a long-term strategic quandary. The current problem is that the longer it is closed, the greater the threat of a global recession. The future dilemma is that Iran now knows that control of the Strait of Hormuz gives it a stranglehold over the world economy. Even if it relaxes its grip in the short term, it can tighten it again in future.

6. A measure of how much Israeli politics has become radicalised.

Israel should destroy all Iran’s oilfields and flatten the energy infrastructure on the island that functions as Tehran’s main oil export hub... the demands... came from Yair Lapid, the silver-haired former premier and television host who heads the centrist Yesh Atid party, and draws much of his support from liberal bastions such as Tel Aviv. Lapid’s message reflects how the fight in Israeli politics, for all Zionist parties in government and opposition, is not over whether to confront Iran but over who will prosecute the war better than Netanyahu. Israel’s offensive has higher public support than almost any other issue in the country’s fractious politics — even after two and a half years of multifront fighting that has disrupted daily life for millions of Israelis. Although Israel’s Arab parties staunchly oppose the war with Iran, polls suggest more than 90 per cent of Jewish Israelis back it, and the country’s Zionist opposition groups have fallen in behind it in unison.

7. Canadian pension funds' PE bets are souring, losing money on their PE investments.

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which manages C$279bn ($206bn) of assets, and the C$145bn Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System reported returns of minus 5.3 per cent and minus 2.5 per cent respectively for their private equity portfolios in 2025. For OTPP, it was the worst performance for this asset class since 2008 and for Omers since 2020. La Caisse, Quebec’s C$517bn state pension fund, also reported weak private equity results. The group said its PE portfolio returned 2.3 per cent last year, well below the 12.6 per cent gain in its benchmark index, half of which is made up of listed stocks. The Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, which published results this week alongside OTPP, reported private equity returns of 3.6 per cent in 2025. Its broader private markets portfolio returned 2.1 per cent, compared with 11.7 per cent for its listed holdings.

8. Thames Water gets new offer from its senior creditors to take over the struggling utility, committing up to £6.55bn of debt and £3.35bn of equity. It is now with Ofwat for regulatory approval. 

Lenders including hedge fund Elliott Management and private capital group Apollo Global Management are locked in negotiations with the regulator as they attempt to take formal ownership of the UK’s largest water provider. The creditors have proposed a new management plan, which could lead to a stock market listing as soon as 2030... The creditor’s £6.55bn debt figure is made up of £3.25bn that will be made available to Thames Water on day one of their ownership, up from £2.25bn previously proposed, and up to an extra £3.3bn that will be made available to the utility over the funding period. The new debt would come in addition to £3bn of emergency financing approved last year to prevent Thames from being renationalised under the government’s special administration regime... The increased debt offering would come on top of an equity injection that has been revised upwards to £3.35bn from £3.15bn... Under the terms of the new proposal, Thames Water’s class A creditors would take a 30 per cent writedown on their existing debt, on top of “a write-off in full of the Class B Debt and any subordinated debt or equity held by existing shareholders”.

9. TJXX is the fourth-largest retail chain in the US and the fourth most profitable global fashion retailer.

10. Rana Faroohar writes about the concierge economy in the US, where the rich can get to the front of the que and buy convenience at a price. She points to the gold-plated subscription healthcare service that comes with minimal wait times for specialists, 24/7 access to physicians, longer sessions with doctors, and which is a $20 bn global business with roughly 40% in the US. 

The market for personal travel planners, high-end club memberships, private wealth managers and educational consultants has in recent years grown by high single to double digits. Fractional aviation subscription services (think NetJets) are growing by about 10 per cent a year. Those with Clear (the airport service that speeds you through security if you must fly commercial) have tripled since 2022. It’s all part of a burgeoning “concierge” economy that caters to affluent consumers who don’t wait — or want — for anything. The global “lifestyle concierge” services market — that’s the part of the business that gets you the right hotel, colourist, Pilates instructor or front-row tickets to the must-see football game — is expected to grow from $16bn to about $36bn by 2035. It’s about saving time, yes, and it’s also about making sure the rich get to speak to human beings who can fix problems and meet high expectations, rather than dealing with search algorithms, AI bots and monotone-voiced teleworkers, like everyone else. Concierge services are about convenience and access, but they are also about bringing ease and luxury to areas that have become digital commodities or suffer from high levels of consumer dissatisfaction, such as healthcare or financial services.

11. India's AIF market is surging.

From about 160 AIFs in 2015, with less than Rs 28,000 crore in commitments, they’ve grown to over 1,740 in number as of January, spread across three categories and with nearly Rs 15 lakh crore in committed capital, according to Sebi... Category-II funds, which include private-credit, real-estate, venture-debt, and private-equity funds, had become the default recommendation... The Indian alternative-investments industry has grown at a compound annual rate of 49% in ten years to September, according to data from PMS Bazaar. Category-II, III funds have grown at over 50% growth rate... category-II funds account for about two-thirds of the total Rs 15 lakh crore commitment... the US, where hedge funds (category-III funds in Sebi parlance) dominate the alternative-investment space... In India, though, a majority of AIF investors come from family-business backgrounds... A mutual fund would deliver 12–14% returns on a long-term basis, and here, AIFs were promising close to 25% internal rate of return for funds in which investor capital was locked-in for eight to 10 years... Reportedly, two-thirds of the money raised by Indian AIFs comes from domestic investors.

12. Global LNG market.

13. Italian judicial reforms face a referendum.

To insulate judges from political pressure, the constitution established the Supreme Council of Magistrates as an autonomous, self-governing body, comprised of two-thirds serving magistrates, elected by their peers, and one-third parliamentary appointees. The council handles the selection, postings, promotions and disciplinary proceedings of all Italy’s magistrates, now numbering around 10,000... In Italy, resolving contentious civil cases through all three levels of the justice system currently takes an average of 2,217 days — six years and one month. That is better than a decade ago, when it took about eight years but still far slower than the EU average of 795 days, or two years and two months... 

Under the proposed reforms, the magistrates’ council would split into three distinct bodies: one supervising prosecutors, one supervising all other magistrates, and a disciplinary court for all. It is a change that many legal experts — and politicians across the spectrum — have long advocated... the reform also envisions a more controversial change: magistrates would no longer be elected by their colleagues to serve on the self-governing bodies but would instead be chosen by lottery. Critics see this as a device to erode judicial autonomy vis-à-vis the political system.

14.  Softbank's spectacular free lunch in the US-Japan trade deal.

SoftBank was set to earn ¥1tn ($6.3bn) in fees... to build and operate a $33bn gas-fired power station in Ohio... It will earn the payments over 15 to 20 years if it can reach the target capacity of 9.2 gigawatts. The idea of a fee arose because SoftBank would otherwise earn nothing for its role as developer of the project. It has no equity in the power station, which will be financed entirely by Japan and owned 50/50 by the US and Japan via a special-purpose vehicle, set up as part of the trade deal... Under the trade deal, profits from the investments made are supposed to be split 50/50 between Japan and the US until Tokyo has recouped its money. After that, the US gets 90 per cent... SoftBank has already placed large-scale orders to begin construction of the power plant in Portsmouth, Ohio, including $10bn for close to 170 turbines from GE Vernova. As developer, SoftBank plans to sell the electricity to data centres it will also operate, say people familiar with the matter. The data centres will serve customers such as OpenAI, in which the Japanese group is a significant shareholder. Japan’s funding comes from both the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and commercial lenders. Nexi, Japan’s export credit agency, will guarantee 90 per cent or more of the commercial portion.

15. Among the several negative externalities of the Trump administration is the resurgence in interest in going nuclear. 

Britain’s Liberal Democrats... now want the nation to build a nuclear deterrent that is less reliant on the US... France, whose force de frappe is truly sovereign, said this month that it would increase its stockpile of warheads. In Poland, a rare point of agreement between the prime minister and the president is their openness to going nuclear. In South Korea, public support for a deterrent has gone up to 70 per cent in recent years. Saudi Arabia, which has said that it would get one if Iran did, might not wait for such a cue now that it and other Gulf states are under conventional attack from that quarter anyway. Even the original nuclear powers are chafing at old taboos. As of last month, there is for the first time in over half a century no binding agreement to limit nuclear arms between America and Russia, which have the world’s two largest arsenals.

Janan Ganesh writes about how Ukraine, Iran, and Trump's weaponisation of the US security umbrella, especially the last, has revived nuclear bomb acquisition.

One is the ordeal of Ukraine. In 1994, it gave up the Soviet nuclear weapons that were then on its soil in exchange for certain assurances about its security. Two decades later, Moscow began its long and ongoing war against Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea. The lesson, for some, is obvious. A country with dangerous neighbours should retain or acquire the ultimate deterrent. Another salutary tale is that of Iran. It seems that an unfinished nuclear bomb is the worst of all worlds: a provocation to other states but not a deterrent. A rational government would either abandon all ambitions of that kind or realise them in full. On balance, given Ukraine’s experience, observers around the world will regard the second course as the more prudent. On top of all this is the endless unpredictability of the US. Until now, countries with the expertise and resources to build the bomb, such as Japan and several European countries, have chosen to duck under America’s nuclear umbrella instead. As Donald Trump casts doubt over whether he would ever honour those mutual defence treaties, some of which were signed a human lifetime ago, this “nuclear latency” doesn’t seem so clever.

16. Shan Jin-Wei, Kun Li, and Kelly Liu suggest that S&P index inclusion may be up for sale by showing that if you purchase a S&P ratings then the company is more likely to get listed in S&P 500 index.

Firms that had recently obtained an S&P rating were significantly more likely to gain admission to the S&P 500. For non-member firms, the unconditional likelihood of being added to the index was 15.5 per cent; for firms that had recently purchased an S&P rating, it was 21.4 per cent. One possible explanation is that S&P tends to favour fast-growing firms, and that such companies are naturally more likely to issue debt and seek credit ratings. But if that were the whole story, we would expect to see the same pattern among firms that purchased ratings from Moody’s, and we did not. If rating purchases simply reflect firm quality or growth prospects, the effect should not be specific to S&P.

Firms’ behaviour further suggests that they see a link between rating purchases and index inclusion. When mergers among S&P 500 firms create openings for new additions, large non-member firms disproportionately increase their purchases of S&P ratings. Conversely, after a 2002 rule change that made foreign firms ineligible for inclusion, non-US firms listed on US exchanges sharply reduced their purchases of S&P ratings relative to Moody’s. The implication is clear: When the prize disappears, so does demand. Taken together, these patterns suggest that firms believe purchasing S&P ratings increases their chances of joining the index.

17.  Of the 937,876 candidates who took the civil services exams in 2025, just 0.1% got selected.

The situation is not much better if we take all the UPSC examinations, where of the 3.3 million candidates in 2022, the pass percentage was 0.18%.

18. The unit economics of AI tokens.

Tokens... are the most basic units of output from large language models: it takes about 1,300 tokens to generate 1,000 words of text... When OpenAI launched GPT-4 two years ago, for instance, it charged $33 for 1mn tokens. Today, it charges only 9 cents for 1mn tokens produced by its cheapest model.

Weekend reading links

1. Municipal bond issuance in India hit a record with nine issuances in FY26 till December, comapred with three and one in the previous two years.  

The total municipal bonds outstanding as on 31st December 2025 was Rs 3,783.9 Cr, with Rs 1000 Cr issued in 2025. 

First-time issuers in 2025 included Agra Nagar Nigam, Prayagraj Nagar Nigam, Varanasi Nagar Nigam and Bhavnagar Municipal Corporation, alongside repeat issuers such as Greater Chennai Corporation and Nashik Municipal Corporation. Market participants said the fiscal support under the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation 2.0 (Amrut 2.0) was a key factor behind the rise in municipal bond issuances. Unlike earlier reform phases, where incentives were indirect or uncertain, the current framework provides quantified incentives that lower the cost of borrowing. First-time issuers are eligible for incentives of ₹13 crore per ₹100 crore of bonds issued, subject to caps, which reduce interest costs over long tenors. For repeat issuers, incentives are linked to green bonds, providing predictability while aligning with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives. This has made bond issuance a viable funding option for urban local bodies (ULBs).

2. Ruchir Sharma says that India must stop exporting human capital and increase its imports of financial capital.  

3. India's oil import sources.

4. About malls in the US

“The good malls are doing better than ever. The bad malls are more challenged than ever,” says John O’Connor, head of acquisitions & development at O’Connor Capital Partners, a property owner. Annual sales per square foot at so-called class C malls are often below $400, while premier class A malls — the hosts of the Apple Store and Louis Vuitton — can bring in more than $1,000, according to Green Street, a real estate research group. The top 100 of America’s roughly 900 shopping malls represent about half of the sector’s asset value, according to Vince Tibone, Green Street’s mall research sector head. The bottom 350 account for just 10 per cent... Per person, mall square footage is more than 12 times higher in the US than in the UK, France or Germany, according to Moody’s Ratings.

5. India is at the lower-end of the ladder among developing countries in the adoption of electric vehicles.

6. China's rising trade surplus, amidst declining exports to the US points to diversion to other countries.

7. India's rice stocks stood at 58 mt in December 2025, and incurs an annual carrying cost of $2 billion.

8. Fascinating account of how the West helped China come to control the global solar and wind power market.

China now controls more than 80 per cent of production for each key stage of solar panel manufacturing, from polysilicon ingots to wafers, cells and modules... research, technical knowhow and equipment spread from the west to China during the 1980s to 2000s. During this period US and European companies regularly sold production lines or other equipment to China and licensed or shared their technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market...

Germany was a prolific exporter of solar production equipment to China... Similarly Poly Engineering, an Italian maker of polysilicon — the key ingredient in solar panels — transferred key production knowhow to China’s Daqo New Energy in 2008, helping China break the grip on polysilicon supply held by the US, Europe and Japan. That same year, Goldwind, now the world’s largest turbine manufacturer, bought a 70 per cent stake in Vensys, a German pioneer of gearless wind turbines. Goldwind had licensed Vensys’s technology for manufacture in China five years earlier. In the early days of the solar industry in the 1980s, there was “very little caution . . . No one had the fantasy to believe China would compete on an equal footing in 15 years’ time,” says Rasmus Lema, an expert on the spread of green technology at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa...A turning point came towards the end of the 2000s, as China’s rapid development of factories, encouraged by the crucial development of its own polysilicon industry, helped push the industry into overcapacity. 

9. Semiconductor chip prices are being squeezed upwards.

At the centre of the squeeze is DRAM, the memory used in smartphones, laptops and servers. Advanced AI processors, such as those made by Nvidia, depend on a specialised variant known as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which stacks chips vertically to increase speed while reducing power use. The rapid construction of data-centres has sent demand for HBM soaring. Producing it is resource-intensive: HBM requires three to four times as many silicon wafers as standard DRAM. Supply is highly concentrated. Just three firms—SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics of South Korea, and Micron of America—rake in more than 90% of global DRAM revenue. All three are switching capacity to HBM, which will account for half of global DRAM revenue by the end of the decade, up from 8% in 2023, reckons Bloomberg Intelligence, a research group. HBM typically yields operating margins of 50% or more, compared with 35% for standard memory. Investors have rewarded the strategy... But the flip side is that more basic memory chips, which account for 15-40% of the cost of smartphones and PCs, are becoming scarcer and costlier. The price for the DRAM found in most consumer electronics, known as DDR4, has risen by 1,360% since April 2025 (see chart 2).

10. India's affordable housing market facts.

The recent data from Knight Frank and the National Real Estate Development Council (Naredco) underline the severity of the problem. Across India’s top eight cities, the supply-to-demand ratio for homes priced below ₹50 lakh went down to 0.36 in the first half of 2025 from 1.05 in 2019. Meanwhile, the share of affordable housing in new supply has hit 17 per cent, plunging from over 50 per cent in 2018, signalling a structural retreat by real-estate developers from the segment. The shortage in urban affordable housing is estimated at 9.4 million units, with cumulative demand from economically weaker sections (EWS), lower-income groups (LIGs), and middle-income households projected to reach 30 million units by 2030.

11. Tracxn data on startup funding in India.

India’s top 20 startups by valuation accounted for over half of the combined valuation of $69.3 billion of the top 100 startups in calendar year 2025 (CY25), according to an analysis of Tracxn data. The valuation of the top 20 startups stood at $35.7 billion in CY25... Also, the average fundraise for the top 20 startups stood at $195 million in CY25. The top five — Zepto, GreenLine, Uniphore, Infra Market, and Access Healthcare — together raised $1.26 billion last year, accounting for over 11 per cent of the total startup funding in CY25. Other startups in the top 20 list included Meril ($200 million), Spinny ($129 million), Jumbotail, and Raise ($100 million), among others... Total startup funding declined 12.5 per cent to $11.2 billion in CY25, from $12.6 billion in CY24. In CY23, the total startup funding stood at $11.1 billion... 

The top five startups by valuation now account for more than a third (34 per cent) of the total valuation of the top 100 startups and as much as 66 per cent of the top 20’s valuation. These companies, including Zepto, CRED, and Zetwerk, together command a valuation of $23.6 billion. Other startups in the top 20 by valuation include Udaan ($1.8 billion), Uniphore ($2.5 billion), Spinny ($1.0 billion), Jumbotail ($1.0 billion), and Raise ($1.2 billion), among others.

12. Eswar Prasad argues, rightly, that the rising Chinese trade surpluses are a bigger problem than the Trump tariffs. While the latter will possibly end when Trump leaves, the former will continue until addressed systemically. 

13. Edward Luce writes that Ireland may be Ground Zero for MAGA to ignite right-wing populism in Europe, as Steve Bannon pursues an Irish Trump. 

Ireland is rare among European democracies in not having a significant hard right party. Perhaps some of that oxygen is sucked up by Sinn Féin, Ireland’s leftwing nationalist party... Trump’s national security strategy highlighted Britain and Ireland as countries to which America was “sentimentally attached”. The US now officially wants to help these two “restore their former greatness”. Given Britain and Ireland’s fraught bilateral history, this is an eccentric twin ambition to announce. Ireland lacks its own Nigel Farage to play that country’s part in fighting what the document calls the west’s “civilisational erasure”. As the Irish writer and essayist Fintan O’Toole observed, “the catastrophic decline of Irish Catholicism is Exhibit A in this apocalyptic narrative”. If you add that Ireland is increasingly depicted as an antisemitic country by pro-Israel lobby groups, and the Irish economy’s heavy dependence on US corporate tax revenue, particularly from Big Tech, the country could be in for a stormy passage. Ireland would be taking a risk bigger than any of its EU partners in championing the bloc’s digital privacy and service laws.

14. Thomas Edsall has a fascinating psychoanalytical explanation of Donald Trump's actions. 

It is possible to become addicted to power — particularly for certain character structures. Individuals with pronounced narcissistic, paranoid or psychopathic tendencies are especially vulnerable. For them, power does not merely enable action; it regulates inner states that would otherwise feel unmanageable.

Donald Trump is an extreme illustration of this dynamic. From a psychoanalytic perspective, his narcissism is malignant in the sense that it is organized around a profound inner emptiness.

Malignant narcissism is a combination of narcissism and psychopathology. Because there is little internal capacity for self-soothing or self-valuation, he requires continuous external affirmation to feel real and intact. Power supplies that affirmation. Visibility, dominance and constant stimulation temporarily fill the void.