Substack

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

US-China trade facts of the day

As the trade-war intensifies, highlighting the complex trade-offs involved, the Times writes,
The Dartmouth economist Douglas Irwin estimated 140,000 American workers make steel, while 6.5 million workers make products that include steel.
The Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese car and light-truck tire makers in 2009-12, and 2015 onwards for five years. The result,
Imports of Chinese tires for sale to American consumers fell to 12.3 million in 2017 from 43 million in 2009, according to Modern Tire Dealer, a trade magazine.
On Chinese FDI into the US,
Amid rising tensions, Chinese direct investment in the United States declined to $2 billion during the first half of 2018 from $45.6 billion in 2016, according to Rhodium Group, a consultancy.
But here is China's problem
China doesn’t import nearly enough from the United States to target $200 billion in American goods — let alone the additional $267 billion in Chinese goods that Mr. Trump has threatened to target... Chinese officials “are generally confused,” said Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda, a trade specialist at the University of California, Los Angeles.. “They don’t know what to do,” he added. “They worry that the tit-for-tat model is playing into Trump’s hands.”... But China’s leaders feel they can’t back down. They have presented the trade war as part of a broader effort by the United States to contain China’s rise. The Chinese public could see any effort to soothe tensions as capitulation.
And this is even more disturbing for China,
The tariffs may be here to stay. Mr. Trump is suffering from weak approval ratings and could lose influence in congressional elections in November. But while Democrats have opposed most of his agenda, many have supported his attacks on trade with China. Even if Mr. Trump leaves office in two years, there is little guarantee that his China trade policies will be changed.

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