The biggest failing of India's urbanisation

What would posterity judge as the biggest collective failures of India's development trajectory today?

Two come straight to mind. The first concerns the abysmal student learning outcomes, which threatens to render the demographic dividend a prohibitive burden. Unfortunately, given the complex and near universal nature of the problem, and the weak state capacity, there is perhaps little likelihood in the short to medium term of any dramatic change.

But the same dismal prognosis may not apply to the second problem, the deeply unsustainable nature of India's urbanisation. Cities need to move and house people. But growing transportation bottlenecks and congestion, and increasingly unaffordable housing threatens to throttle the engine that is driving economic growth. Without radical policy shifts, even upper middle class households and small businesses will (or have already in the largest cities) get priced off the market. The same centers of economic vibrancy will start decaying.

Fortunately, both the threats can be addressed and the urban growth engine can keep going with the right set of policy actions. At the risk of simplification, I will propose three very specific actions.

1. Embrace density through promotion of vertical development by dramatically increasing permissible Floor Area Ratios (FARs). The only way to increase housing stock significantly given the limited land available is to build upwards. Only a very big supply response can make housing and office space affordable in our cities.

2. Shape the urban form using transport infrastructure, or transit-oriented development (TOD). Use high density and fast transport networks to connect large population clusters and aggregate density (both residential and office uses) on important transit corridors by allowing very high FAR and mixed use developments around transit stations. Co-locating offices and houses in the vicinity of transit station would help move people in large volumes from point to point, and minimise commute distances and times. In fact, the implementation of several metro railways projects without these urban planning reforms can perhaps be counted as among the costliest public policy mistake of our times.  

3. Finally, complement the trunk transport infrastructure with last mile connectivity using buses. Even with TOD, a significant proportion of last mile travel cannot be avoided, and modally integrated bus services are the only solution. It is no surprise that even in the largest and best planned global cities of the world, buses are the biggest transit mode. Policy measures like bus lanes and significant increases in bus infrastructure are necessary.

While several complementary measures are also required, any meaningful effort to address the problem is impossible without all the three aforementioned actions. 

Fortunately, unlike student learning outcomes, it is possible to respond immediately with policy actions on each of the above. They do not require enormous capital expenditure. Nor do they involve tricky political trade-offs. Nor do they all even require the sort of persistent and high quality engagement that a weak state is unlikely to pull off. In short, they are very much doable. 

For the most part, all it requires is a set of well-crafted urban planning regulations and let the markets play out. Is there the vision and leadership to realise it? Maybe one state?