Substack

Friday, June 3, 2022

Mathew Effect in football

An Iron Law of modern capitalism is that of Mathew Effect. The rich get richer. The efficient become more efficient. The entrenched get more entrenched. And all of these positive feedbacks engender their respective negative consequences.

European football is the latest exhibit. Since 2013 or so, thanks to their financial muscle, the English Premier League (EPL) has broken away from the rest of Europe. 

The same trend works within all the major leagues - the richest handful of clubs dominate so as to create virtual two-tier leagues. 

In the early 1990s the European Cup was far more cosmopolitan, with clubs from 13 countries reaching the semi-finals. In the past five years, three-quarters of semi-finalists came from just five urban western European regions: Paris, Madrid, Munich, London and the north-west of England. The dynamic playing out between countries has created uneven playing fields within them. Adjusted for changes in ranking methodology, in 1975 30 points separated first from last in the English top tier, and the difference between the best and worst goal difference was 52. This season, the former is 72 and goal difference 134. The risk is that England’s elite not only dominate domestically but that the Champions League in effect becomes the nation’s fourth piece of major silverware after the Premier League, FA Cup and League Cup.

It's really a simple dynamic. In the absence of any regulation, in a free market of any kind, competition will invariably end up favouring the more endowed (with resources, capacity, influence etc) at the cost of the less endowed. In other words, the starting point becomes the critical factor in the competitive race. What makes it even worse is the inevitability of political or regulatory capture that's associated with any market where concentration crosses some threshold. This is the Iron Law of a free market economy!

No comments: