Substack

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Weekend reading links

1. Nice article on London's residential blue plaques which commemorate great people who lived in the same place. The scheme, founded in 1866, and administered by a society, English Heritage, fixes ceramic blue circular plaques on 12 residences, which are selected after a very competitive process of vetting by a committee of 12 eminent historians, artists, and other eminent people. Residents can make applications, and the subject must have died more than 20 years before and the surviving building must remain in a form that the commemorated person would have recognised and be visible from a public highway.

2. Megan Greene writes about the apparent decoupling of wages as a determinant of monetary policy.  Despite NAIRU being revised downwards multiple times and unemployment rate declining continuously, wage inflation remains elusive, pointing to a breakdown in the Phillips curve theory that trades-off inflation and unemployment. She points to the whole list of contributory factors,
Consumption patterns have shifted drastically over the past 70 years. In the 1950s Americans spent more on goods, and goods-producing sectors (manufacturing and construction) tend to be high-wage. Now a majority of our consumption is of services, and most services-producing sectors (such as retail, social assistance, and leisure and hospitality) are low-wage. A global oversupply of cheap labour also suppresses earnings. The fall of the Iron and Bamboo curtains roughly doubled the global work force over the course of two decades, a pattern that continues as other developing countries such as India and Indonesia urbanise and industrialise. The internet has only expanded globalisation. Other factors suppressing wages are more specific to this cycle. Workers in the gig economy usually earn less than those in full-time employment. And there has been a significant increase in market concentration over the past 10 years. As the late Alan Krueger pointed out last year at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, it is easier for companies to collude on suppressing wage growth when there are fewer companies competing for labour. Demographics play a role as well. Most economists focus on baby boomers retiring and being replaced by less experienced, cheaper workers. A number of business owners at the summit noted that the millennials they hire — the largest segment of the labour market — are more interested in the community and experience at work than in making as much money as possible. As with all things in economics, maybe the problem is partly one of measurement. The average hourly earnings data does not capture benefits such as days off or health insurance, nor the value employees put on things like flexible work hours or feeling a sense of purpose in a role.
3. FT points to a very informative MGI report on Latin America,
One reason why Latin America is lagging behind is that the region lacks a solid tier of midsized companies able to create productive jobs and a robust middle class of consumers whose spending and saving could propel demand and investment, according to a report by McKinsey Global Institute. Addressing these twin gaps could increase annual growth to 3.5 per cent by 2030, McKinsey estimated; that would boost Latin America’s gross domestic product by $1tn, an extra $1,000 a year per capita... When measured relative to their GDP, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico only have about half as many firms with revenues above $50m as 10 other leading emerging economies that McKinsey used as comparators.
This is compounded by a triple-whammy of slow GDP growth, low productivity growth, and unequal distribution of the gains of growth.

4. Profiling Mariana Mazzucato.

5. Is the Government e Marketplace (GeM) among the good example of public policy successes of this government?

6. Fascinating picture of the battle for the top place in India's telecoms market between Vodafone and Jio,
For starters, Vodafone Idea, with the largest user base, made a net loss of ₹4,874 crore in the June quarter, while Jio made a profit of ₹891 crore. Both companies have priced mobile services at almost similar levels... Despite more subscribers, Vodafone Idea, which posted revenue of 11,269.9 crore, lags behind Jio which posted revenues of ₹11,679 crore in the June quarter... Vodafone Idea had 84.8 million 4G subscribers as of 30 June. However, in comparison, Jio has 331.3 million 4G subscribers. Then again, Vodafone Idea’s subscriber base is a mix of 2G, 3G and 4G while Jio is a 4G-only operator... While Vodafone Idea’s average revenue per user is steadily climbing, Jio’s is dropping... After Vodafone Idea rolled rout monthly minimum recharge plans for subscribers to stay on its network, its shrinking subscriber base has led to an improvement in average revenue per user (Arpu) to ₹108 in the June quarter, from ₹104 in the March quarter, ₹89 in December and ₹88 in September... Jio, on the other hand, has shown the opposite trend for the last 6 quarters. Jio’s ARPU for the June 2019 quarter was at ₹122, down from ₹126.2 in the March 2019 quarter and ₹130 in the December 2018 quarter. It was at its peak of Rs154 in the December 2017 quarter.
7. Two interesting snapshots of India's district and subordinate courts, which take up nearly 90% of all judicial case load pending. Land and labour cases have the worst pendency rates
And nearly three-fourths of the delays are due to administrative issues - nearly half due to stay orders issued by higher courts, and the remaining due to trouble securing witnesses.
This is shining light on the dark under-belly of India's judicial system. I have blogged on multiple occasions about the curse of stay orders, without any sunset and which can run interminably and is widely abused by litigants. It would be useful to explore how seriously have previous attempts at judicial reform considered this factor. 

8. The above Livemint article references this 2012 paper by Matthieu Chemin which used the 2002 CPC amendment to show that "speedier courts, defined as those with lower workload, were associated with small firms suffering fewer breaches of contract, investing more, and enjoying better access to finance".

9. As airlines squeeze more out of their planes, Livemint writes in the context of Philippines' Cebu Air,
Cebu doubled down in June with a $6.8 billion order for Airbus jets that includes 16 higher-capacity A330neos. Airbus says the plane is designed to fit 260 to 300 passengers in a typical layout that has first-class, business and economy cabins. For “higher-density configurations" -- code for bare-bones economy -- the planes fit as many as 440, the manufacturer says. Cebu is planning for 460, once the layout is certified... Less legroom is now the industry norm. In the early-2000s, rows in economy used to be 34 inches (86 centimeters) to 35 inches apart; now 30 to 31 inches is typical, though 28 inches can be found on short flights, according to Washington D.C.-based advocacy group Flyers Rights. Seats have narrowed, too, from about 18.5 inches to 17 inches on average... Seats on the Cebu Air planes are just 16.5 inches wide, less than the width of two hand spans and short of the 18-inch minimum that the manufacturer, Airbus SE, says is comfortable.
As this scramble for space continues, is this the new fault-line in airline safety? Are regulators watching?

No comments: