When both SRK and Sony refused to "chicken"!

There are two big blockbuster film releases for this Diwali weekend. Saawariya, directed by Sanjay Leela Bhansali, and produced by Sony Pictures Entertainment, will be the first Indian movie produced by a Hollywood production house. Om Shanti Om (OSO) is the latest film of Shahrukh Khan (SRK) and is produced by his own production house, Red Chillies Entertainment. Here is a high stakes game if there ever was one - a Hollywood studio's first foray into Bollywood and a movie acted and produced by SRK!

Now game theorists would call this setting similar to a classic two player, Chicken Game. The name "Chicken" has its origins in a game in which two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course. One must swerve, or both may die in the crash. But if one driver swerves and the other does not, that driver will be called a "chicken". While the most desired solution for each driver is for him to go straight and for his opponenet to swerve. Both drivers think likewise, and may refuse to swerve, and end up crashing into each other. This game has been used to model many games of brinkmanship, including the posturing between nuclear weapon powers.

Here are two films under production. Both are big-budget, big banner, star studded and highly anticipated releases. Both want to capture the Diwali weekend market. But if both are released at the same time, there is large possibility of each film cannibalizing the other's market. If both were released separately, each would be able to dominate the market and maximize their revenue earnings. But Diwali is a special opportunity, with higher payoffs (both financially and in terms of star quotient/reputation/ego, and I am inclined to believe that it is the former that is the dominant consideration), which both producers are not willing to forego.

In such circumstances, if Saawariya blinks and postpones its release, it leaves the entire Diwali market to OSO. The producer of OSO thinks likewise. A stalemate is reached, with both not wanting to leave the market open to the other. It is a different matter that given their high profile, both films will be able to rake in its share of profits irrespective of the release time. But during Diwali, by going head on against each other, it gives the audience and its merchandise customers a choice between the two. In the absence of a choice, as would be the case if they are not competing against each other, each film would have had the entire market for itself, and would have been able to maximize revenues.

In such circumstance, the equilibrium solution is when both production houses refuse to blink and go on to release their films together for the Diwali weekend. So both SRK and Sony refused to chicken out!