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Saturday, December 31, 2022

A graphical summary of 2022

1. A headline story of the year was the return of inflation and high interest rates.

US inflation hit 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981. After lagging behind, core inflation rose sharply, pointing to the broad-based nature of inflation.
US interest rates have risen from 0.25% on March 17, 2022 to 4.5% by December 14, 2022, the fastest rate hikes ever.
2. The other headline story was the performance of the capital markets. It was the worst year for the 60/40 investment portfolio since 1930.
Not just in the US, globally too bonds and stocks both had a disastrous year, breaking the inverse correlation. 
The bond market returns for the year till end-November were already the worst for over a century.
As regards the stock markets,
3. In general, it was a bad year for everything other than dollar and commodities
4. Commodity prices spiked and then retreated
European natural gas prices had risen above 300 euros per megawatt hour, or more than $500 a barrel in oil equivalent, but has now settled back though still elevated compared to normal times. 
5. Pandemic induced supply chain squeezes eased, despite the Ukraine invasion
6. The Ukraine invasion galvanised the comatose western coalition, and nowhere was this most visible than in the unprecedented exit from Russia by western corporates.
By the end of April itself, 70 percent of the Fortune 500 companies operating in Russia prior to the invasion opted to leave or scale back their business once the conflict began.

7. The year saw the re-emergence of America as the pre-eminent global superpower. Scott Galloway has this graphic which shows that US has pledged $47 bn in military aid, more than the combined contribution of all others.
In terms of all financial aid to Ukraine too, things don't change much

8. Livemint's asset returns quilt

BlackRock's asset returns map shows how bad has 2022 been for asset markets.

9. Chinese property market has been on the downswing since the pandemic, and it fell steeper this year.

10. Finally, a pointer to a list of links

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