McKinsey has an article on the second inflection in mobility, a full century after the first shift from horses to internal combustion engines,
Electric and autonomous vehicles, more interconnected and intelligent road networks, new customer interfaces and services, and a dramatically different competitive landscape in which tech giants, start-ups, and OEMs mix and mingle are just a few of the shifts in store. Radical improvements in cost-effectiveness, convenience, experience, safety, and environmental impact will, taken together, disrupt myriad business models on an almost inconceivable scale.
How will this prophecy stand the test of time?
For precedent, sample this about the spectacular growth of motor vehicles, on the back of Henry Ford's Model T,
In 1900, about 4,000 automobiles were produced in the United States; none of them were trucks. During the 1910s, the number of automobiles across different parts of the United States began to eclipse the number of horses and buggies. By 1920, America had more than 9.2 million registered motor vehicles, including more than one million trucks.
And its social, cultural, and economic impact,
On the left side of the growth curve were steam and hay (and feet), dirt roads, manure-filled cities, and sleepy countryside. Past the inflection came gasoline, paved roads and highways, motels, fast-food restaurants, and suburbia. Mobility was not just cars, but parts manufacturers and suppliers, mechanics, taxis, buses, commuter railways, and, in time, metro-area airports. The auto industry created millions of jobs and massive new profit pools. Three of the top ten highest incomes reported to the Internal Revenue Service in 1924 came from automobile-industry titans.
So what is the promised world of mobility industry,
Much of the activity revolves around automotive technologies known by the acronym ACES—vehicles that are autonomous, connected, electric, and shared... Autonomous-car technologies will soon transform what “riding” means... The technology for connectivity—what car riders experience along the way—is also poised for a breakthrough... Occupants will be afforded personalized infotainment through voice and hand gestures... connectivity systems will become a “virtual chauffeur,” in which cognitive artificial intelligence (AI) can anticipate and fulfill riders’ needs... Sensors embedded in vehicles will communicate with traffic lights, street signs, and each other, allowing cars to travel much closer together and shortening travel times significantly. As weather conditions change and car volumes ebb and surge, routes will be optimized near instantaneously... Significant improvements in battery technologies and the use of renewables, plus evident regulatory will from many governments to impose regional and global carbon limits, means the likely end of ICE’s technology predominance. That spells new opportunities for those in the energy and metals and mining industries, among others... If ride-sharing AVs eventually remove the driver from the equation, they could make riding more affordable... That will greatly lower the total cost of ownership due to lower variable cost, despite higher fixed cost (the original price of the car)... More people e-hailing means one less major use case for OEMs to address, which will allow affordable, purpose-built vehicles to be introduced in turn. Shifting from “pay for vehicle” to “pay per mile” has the happy result of reducing the price of both.
Now to wait and see which of these trends emerge!
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