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Saturday, November 15, 2025

Weekend reading links

Shein’s low prices and vast choice led to meteoric success in western markets, particularly the US. Algorithms scour the web for trending ideas and feed them to designers, who then place orders with a network of about 7,000 contract suppliers, many clustered in Panyu, a manufacturing suburb of Guangzhou. The company tests the popularity of new designs via ultra-small orders, only ordering more when it is sure there will be demand. This model allows Shein to offer millions of designs at any one time, according to a person familiar with the company, compared to tens of thousands at other mass market retailers.

2. China is upending the politics of climate change and energy transition.

Countries like Brazil, India, and Vietnam are rapidly expanding solar and wind power. Poorer countries like Ethiopia and Nepal are leapfrogging over gasoline-burning cars to battery-powered ones. Nigeria, a petrostate, plans to build its first solar-panel manufacturing plant. Morocco is creating a battery hub to supply European automakers. Santiago, the capital of Chile, has electrified more than half of its bus fleet in recent years. Key to this shift is the world’s new renewable energy superpower: China. Having saturated its own market with solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, Chinese companies are now exporting their wares to energy-hungry countries in the developing world. What’s more, they’re investing billions of dollars in factories that make things like solar panels in Vietnam and electric cars in Brazil. In effect, Chinese industrial policy is shaping the development trajectory of some of the world’s fastest-growing economies... 

But these countries are increasingly meeting large portions of their energy needs with renewable power, both for the cost savings and for energy security reasons. Many are trying to reduce the amount of fossil fuels they import to relieve pressure on their foreign currency reserves. Rapidly falling prices of Chinese technology are enabling them to do that... Ethiopia last year took the extraordinary step of banning the import of new gasoline-powered cars. Nepal reduced import duties on electric vehicles so much that they are now cheaper than cars with internal combustion engines. Brazil raised tariffs on all car imports to compel Chinese automakers like BYD and Great Wall Motors to set up plants inside Brazil.

This is the important point

With Chinese exports of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries hitting records this year, Beijing increasingly has a vested interest in making sure the rest of the world moves faster in adopting renewable energy. Many American and European leaders have expressed alarm at China’s growing dominance, which has undercut their own industries. But at the summit, plenty of emerging countries seem fine with the arrangement. “You can’t insist that China has to lower its emissions” and then, later, “complain that China is putting cheap E.V.s all over the world,” Mr. Corrêa do Lago, the Brazilian diplomat shepherding this year’s international climate talks, known as COP30, in the Brazilian city of Belém, said. “If you are worried about climate, this is good news.”

3. Notwithstanding the rocketing valuations, the bull case for AI is in this stat and graph.

Those worried about an AI bubble can point to S&P 500 capital expenditure as a fraction of GDP being higher than the levels seen during the dotcom bubble. Yet, the equivalent capex numbers are only about 40 per cent of operating cash flow — far lower than the over 70 per cent levels seen during the dotcom mania.
The headline result of the study from researchers at Zhejiang and Columbia universities — Generative AI and Firm Productivity: Field Experiments in Online Retail — was simple. Most of their GenAI experiments increased revenue, in some cases by a large margin. The largest gain was recorded when the platform added an AI assistant before the point of purchase — sales rose by 16.3 per cent and the conversion rate, the share of visitors who become buyers, increased by 21.7 per cent... Smaller and newer sellers, along with less experienced buyers, saw a disproportionate lift... An even tougher comparison, which pitted a hybrid AI system that escalated complex issues to humans against a team of human agents, produced an 11.5 per cent sales increase. This dovetails with what we’ve seen at HSBC in experiments in which we pit AI against humans in investment research. The results suggest AI is best used to augment human analysts, rather than trying to replace them.

4. Striking statistic about the value of electricity demand management at a time when data centre demand for power is surging.

One study from Duke University found that if data centres agreed to curtail their consumption just 0.25 per cent of the time (roughly 22 hours over the course of the year), the grid could provide power for about 76GW of new demand. That’s like adding about 5 per cent of the entire grid’s capacity without needing to build anything new.

5. PLI statistics

Launched in FY2022, these schemes span 14 sectors with total expected capex of close to Rs. 4.0 trillion under these initiatives. As of March 2025, capex of ₹1.8 trillion has led to incremental sales of ₹16.5 trillion, with exports accounting for 30–35 per cent of this growth... Only 16 per cent of the total incentive outlay (₹3 trillion) is expected to be disbursed or become eligible by end-FY2026, with the balance contingent on future production and sales milestones... The incentive scheme for mobile Phones has transformed India from a net importer to a net exporter of mobile phones. Production increased by 146 per cent between FY2021 and FY2025, and exports have risen eightfold. Despite this, local value addition remains limited, with high-value components still largely imported.

6. Changing attitudes towards Israel among Americans. 

According to a Gallup poll earlier this year, 59 per cent of Democrats said they were sympathetic to the Palestinians, compared to 21 per cent for Israelis. Back in 2001, more than 50 per cent of respondents said their sympathies lay more with the Israelis, versus 16 per cent who sympathised more with the Palestinians... A separate Washington Post poll last month found 32 per cent of Jewish Americans thought the US was too supportive of Israel, up from 11 per cent just over a decade ago. “Polls show that 77 per cent of Democrats deem what has happened in Gaza to be a genocide, and that Israel should be held accountable,” said Chi Ossé, a Democratic member of the New York City council and strong supporter of Mamdani.
A GPT-4 model can use up to 463,269 megawatt-hours of electricity per year, according to research by academics at the University of Rhode Island, University of Tunis and Providence College. That is more than the annual energy consumption of more than 35,000 US homes.

8. The disappearing Chinese military leadership due to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption purges raises questions about the professionalism of the Chinese armed forces.

When the Communist Party's Central Committee met last month, 27 senior PLA officers who formed 64% of its members with a military background were missing, either due to investigation or having been removed from their jobs or party membership. 

While India’s population of 1.4bn offers enviable scale, its market has proven difficult to monetise. According to Sensor Tower, Indian internet users downloaded 24.3bn apps in 2024 and spent 1.13tn hours on them, but total spending was just $1bn.

10. Credit rating agencies are again in focus after the rise in defaults in the private credit industry.

Second-tier shops that have shot to prominence by catering to the booming private credit market, which has grown to some $3tn in recent years. Smaller, specialist providers such as Morningstar DBRS, Kroll Bond Rating Agency, HR Ratings and Egan-Jones have seized market share by offering private capital groups the chance to shop around. Some of the world’s biggest asset managers, including Blackstone and Apollo, are now among the most frequent users of ratings from firms beyond the big three. But as sudden bankruptcies at First Brands and Tricolor have fuelled fears that cracks are emerging in the private credit universe, some financial heavyweights are warning that ratings arbitrage could pose risks to the wider financial system... UBS chair Colm Kelleher said, “What you’re seeing now is a massive growth in small rating agencies ticking the box for compliance of investment.” Private letter ratings are not disclosed publicly, but can be used to determine capital requirements.
As private capital groups have boomed — and piled into the insurance industry, buying up life insurers — so has the demand for private letter ratings on everything from debt issued by individual portfolio companies to slices of asset-backed securities packaged into bonds destined for investment-grade buyers. Insurers affiliated with the private capital groups use those investment-grade credit ratings to trim the capital they are required to have to back their long-term obligations to retirees. As their needs have grown, the big private capital firms have turned to the smaller agencies as they seek a faster, more flexible service to suit their complex needs... Egan-Jones, which first began issuing private ratings in 2014 and now has more than 22,000 transactions to its name, has come under scrutiny for the sheer volume of ratings it has been able to issue with relatively few analysts in very little time. Egan-Jones has just 20 or so analysts and managed to issue more than 3,600 ratings last year alone, making it the most prolific grader of loans to individual businesses. Egan-Jones told the FT it had issued another 3,400 so far in 2025.

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