Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Eurozone crisis in graphics

A series of excellent graphics from Paul Krugman that points to the underlying causes behind Europe's current crisis.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, surging public debt and fiscal irresponsibility was not the cause for the current problems, even among the peripheral economies. Greece was the only exception. The graphic shows how public debt to GDP ratios continued to decline across the PIIGS throughout last decade till the crisis struck.

However, in the aftermath of the Eurozone integration, there was a sharp surge in capital inflows from the core to the peripheral economies. Both demand and supply side forces drove these flows. On the demand side, the single currency and the resultant sharing of sovereign risk lowered the cost of capital for all these economies, thereby making debt available at cheap rates for the domestic industry.

On the supply side, this capital flow bubble was induced by the sudden decline in the sovereign risk of the peripheral economies (given their integration into a single currency union), the bright economic prospects and the potential for higher returns. Investors assumed that the biggest supporters of European integration, Germany and France, would never let a weaker eurozone country default on its obligations, for fear of derailing the political union of Europe. This belief enabled precisely such countries and their private financial institutions to borrow heavily at cheap rates. Predictably, these flows led the emergence of large current account imbalances.

The sudden influx of easy money led to a sharp increase in price levels and wages across the PIIGS economies. The economic competitiveness of these economies took a hit, especially in relation to the core area economies.

Despite the austerity programs under implementation in these economies, the debt-to-GDP ratios are not expected to come down anytime soon. The shrinking economies have contributed to the declines in interest rates.

Update 1 (28/2/2012)

Paul Krugman on what caused the Eurozone crisis,

At root, their problems are primarily caused by balance-of-payments rather than sovereign debt issues; they had huge capital inflows between 1999 and 2007, which led to inflation, and now they need somehow to regain competitiveness. But overlaid on this is a sovereign-debt crisis, which has forced them to seek aid — and the lenders are demanding harsh austerity in return, which is further depressing economies already suffering from severe overvaluation.

See also this set of graphics from Krugman. This shows the impact of austerity on Greece.

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