My prediction for the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2010 to be announced on Monday are
1. Richard Thaler and Robert Shiller, or
2. William Nordhaus and Martin Weitzman
The first two represent arguably the most influential trend in economics today - the use of insights from behavioural psychology to explain both macroeconomic and microeconomic phenomena. The later twosome are unquestioned leaders in the increasingly important field of environmental economics, especially in studying the impact of climate change.
In light of what the world economy has been undergoing over the past three years, the two people who are certain not to get are Robert Barro and Eugene Fama. The trade economists like Avinash Dixit, Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman may have lost their chance (or may have to wait for some more time) once Paul Krugman won the single award in 2008.
Both predictions are a repeat of my unsuccessful prediction of 2009. Hopefully, "this time is different"!