Wednesday, October 26, 2011

A graphical summary of the state of Indian Economy

Inflation has remained elevated at 8-10% range for more than 18 months since March 2010. Though the RBI and government have predicted the subsidence of headline inflation for many months now, it remains persistent at these high rates. The RBI's second quarter monetary policy review has projected baseline inflation to be 7% by end-March 2012.

Since February 2010, the RBI has increased rates 13 successive times, the largest such sequence of increases in its history. The repo and reverse repo rates have risen by 375 and 425 basis points respectively during this time.

Adding to the pressure is the steep recent depreciation in the value of rupee. While beneficial to exporters, it has the potential to add to inflationary pressures by making imports, espcially of oil, costlier.

In a reflection of the tightening monetary conditions, anchored inflation expectations, and increased government borrowings (government recently announced an increase in its 2011-12 fiscal borrowing by an additional Rs 52,872 Cr, taking it to a record Rs 4.7 trillion), long-term interest rates have been climbing. Into this milieu the announcement by the government The yields on 10 year government bonds have increased by more than 80 basis points since the beginning of the year.

As a measure of the growing global financial market instability, India VIX, the barometer of equity market volatility, has not only risen but has shown increased fluctuations over the past three months.

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