Saturday, February 13, 2010

World economic update

Floyd Norris has an excellent graphic which nicely captures the broad snapshot of how global manufacturing output is recovering and even accelerating after V-shaped falls in 2008 and 2009, though manufacturing employment continues to remain weak in some countries.

The chart above reflects the monthly surveys of manufacturers in 10 countries around the world, focusing on output and employment. The US GDP has been estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 5.7% for the final quarter of 2009, while unemployment rate declined to 9.7% in January. The Indian economy is also forecast to grow at a fast clip. The advance estimates of CSO has put GDP growth rate for 2009-10 at 7.2%, RBI at 7.5%, and the Finance Ministry at 7.75%.

More evidence of a robust recovery in India comes in the form of the IIP figures for December which shows that industrial output grew 16.8% from a year earlier, its fastest pace in at least a decade. This is higher than the revised annual rise of 11.8% in November and also above analysts forecast for a 12% rise. Consumer durables goods output continued to surge on the back of fiscal spending, growing an annual 46%, manufacturing production rose 18.5%, while capital goods output was up 38.8% and mining rose 9.5%.

Update 1 (22/3/2010)
Paul Krugman uses the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Database to highlight the depth of Great Recession for the advanced economies.

Update 2 (2/4/2010)
WSJ points to the Purchasing Managers Index which indicates a strong manufacturing growth across the world.

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