Saturday, November 22, 2008

Global power trends

The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) (representing all the 16 US intelligence agencies) has released the latest edition of its five yearly report, Global Trends 2025, about the emerging and latent trends in the global balance of power and major challenges facing the world. The report seeks to "stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact".

Among its predictions: the US will remain the most powerful country but will be less dominant; power will shift from West to East; transfer of global wealth and income from the West to East is without precedent; there will be intensified competition to control strategic resources, including energy, food and water; ideological conflicts akin to the Cold War are unlikely to take root in a world in which most states will be preoccupied with the pragmatic challenges of globalization and shifting global power alignments; the appeal of al-Qaeda will lessen; wane in the appeal of terrorism; end of the unipolar moment in the world balance of power and the emergence of a multipolar world with China, India and others playing greater roles; an "arc of instability" will stretch round the world among countries with young populations.

A brief of all the key trends is available here.

No comments: